A lot of talk is being made lately about whether Bitcoin has made its peak and is entering a new Bea Cycle or not. In a previous long-term article, account named TradingShot was introduced the concept of how BTC behaves when new ATH is made without previously hitting the former Cycle Peak. On today’s publication he plots alongside those ‘Triangles’ idea the 2Y MA Multiplier indicator in order to more efficiently illustrate why having a Cycle Peak already is not likely.
As you see on the chart, the time-frame is the 1W (weekly) but the MA periods shown vary. Starting with the bold, the green line represents the 2Y MA while the red one displays the 2Y MA Multiplier X5. The orange line is the MA200 on the 1D time-frame while the blue is the MA20 on the 1M time-frame.
As you realize, the 1M MA20 follows the 2Y MA quite closely. Historically, every dip below the 2Y MA has been a buy opportunity and the good news is that this has risen significantly to the 28650 level currently. The 2Y MA50, which is the focal point of this analysis typically raises a flag of a Cycle Peak formation when it breaks. In February 2021, the price got rejected just below that level, which historically indicates that the current Cycle hasn’t peaked yet.
At the same time, the 1D MA200 and the 1M MA20 have started to converge. Every time that happened, BTCUSD started an aggressive rally shortly after. It is very probable that we are on the last consolidation phase (blue Triangle) before the last parabolic rally of the Cycle (which I’ve illustrated on numerous ideas before) that will eventually break above the 2Y MA x5 Multiplier and form the Cycle Peak.
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DISCLAIMER: The article is not calling for investment. Every decision is yours to decide