ADA has been falling since hitting an ATH of $3.10 in August 2021. The downtrend followed a descending resistance line and led to a low at $0.40 on May 12, 2022. Since then, the price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. It is currently hovering above $0.42.
The closest support zone is $0.36, which is an important horizontal support level that previously acted as resistance (red icon) in May 2018 and then in January 2021 (red icon). The breakout in January 2021 was the catalyst for the start of an upward movement toward a new all-time high.
Therefore, despite the sharp drop since the peak, ADA price has yet to reach a significant horizontal support level. Also, the RSI has not yet broken out of the bearish divergence (green) trendline.
As a result of the above signals, a continuation of the downtrend toward the $0.36 area seems to be the most likely scenario.
Downward Movement Will Continue
The daily chart shows that ADA has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle since the aforementioned low. Although the symmetrical triangle is considered a neutral pattern, breaking it is the most possible scenario, as the triangle is happening after a downward movement.
On October 2, ADA price reached a low of $0.41, during a break below the low of the D wave (red line). This confirms the number of bearish waves, showing that the price has now broken out of the symmetrical triangle. This scenario is also proved as the previous RSI falls below 50 (red icon). The 1.61 extension of the triangle height suggests a drop to $0.23.
As for the long-term wave count, it is likely that the triangle is wave four out of five of the downward movement (black). Therefore, the price has now started wave five.
The lowest level that the price could reach is $0.22 was also calculated using a parallel channel to connect the highs of waves two and four. Due to this confluence, it is likely that the price will fall toward the above levels.
Conclusion
In the case of ADA, both the price movement, the technical indicator, and the number of waves are down. The $0.25 target could be due to a consolidation of Fib levels and channeling methods. While this is the most likely scenario, a rise above $0.52 would invalidate it.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision.
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