In a tweet on August 30, senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that the chances of approval have been raised from 65% to an impressive 75%. This upgrade is attributed to the resounding decision reached by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit, which displayed unanimity and decisiveness.
Notably, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein emphasized in a separate note that the judges unanimously rejected the SEC’s arguments, making it difficult for the agency to justify further denials as it faces impending deadlines.
In an insightful post on X, James Seyffart, one of Bloomberg’s esteemed analysts, expressed confidence that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a sure thing by the fourth quarter of 2024. Seyffart estimated that the approval odds have now skyrocketed to an impressive 95% by that time.
Eric Balchunas, another expert at Bloomberg, further emphasized the implications of the recent legal and public relations setback. Balchunas stated that a denial by the SEC would be “politically untenable,” suggesting that the agency would face significant challenges given the prevailing circumstances.
In the next five days, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to make “first deadline” decisions on seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications. These applications come from prominent names in the industry, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.
Eric Balchunas, a respected analyst at Bloomberg, expressed the possibility of the SEC delaying these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications. However, he also mentioned that it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the SEC unexpectedly gives in and approves all the Bitcoin spot ETFs in one go. This outcome could be a game-changer for the industry.